Species Distribution Models predict abundance and its temporal variation in a steppe bird population

Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) derived from Species Distribution Model (SDM) has been used to infer or predict local demographic properties such as abundance for many species. Across species studied, HSI either presented a poor predictor of potential rather than realized abundance. The main explanation the lack relationship between and is that varies in time due various ecological processes are not integrated into correlative SDM. To better understand HSI-abundance relationship, addition study association mean abundance, we explored its variation over time. We data 10-years monitoring Houbara bustard (Chlamydotis undulata undulata) population Morocco. From occurrence modelled HSI. (independent) count calculated four indices: maximum temporal trend coefficient period. indices using linear, polynomial quantile regressions. found triangular (mean maximum) HSI, indicating upper limit increased with Our results also indicate sites highest were associated least being observed at intermediate provide new empirical evidence supporting generalization Overall, our support hypothesis obtained SDMs can reflect potentialities emphasize importance investigating this